A recap of Nick Halaris' insights on the LA real estate market, market predictions for 2025, and entrepreneurial wisdom from the No Vacancy podcast
In a recent episode of No Vacancy podcast, host Taylor Avakian sat down with Nick Halaris, a seasoned real estate investor, operator, and founder of Metros Capital. What makes this conversation particularly timely is how dramatically Nick's outlook for the LA real estate market has shifted in the wake of recent wildfires that devastated parts of Los Angeles County.
Taylor introduces Nick and sets up the conversation
Just one month ago, Nick was prepared to deliver a grim forecast for LA's real estate market in 2025 - predicting a "nasty year" with potentially 20% price declines across residential and multi-family properties. His original outlook was based on observed weakness in the economy, persistent inflation concerns, and what he described as "hidden rental deflation" already occurring in LA.
"Rather than having a disaster, 2025 LA is going to feel like a bull market because of this wild shift in supply and demand dynamics."
— Nick Halaris
However, the recent wildfires have completely reversed his outlook. With an estimated 5,000-7,000 homes and 15,000+ structures destroyed, the sudden displacement of thousands of residents has dramatically altered the supply-demand equation. He now believes 20% price increases could be on the table for those fortunate enough not to have been impacted by the fires.
Nick noted that prior to the fires, LA was experiencing an unusual glut of high-end single-family homes for rent. This surplus existed partly because the for-sale housing market was "essentially broken" due to high mortgage rates making properties unaffordable.
The impact was already evident just days after the fires, with much of this rental inventory being quickly absorbed by displaced residents. Nick shared an anecdote about insurance companies being surprisingly responsive in helping displaced homeowners secure rental properties quickly.
"All angelinos are going to face incredible increases in their insurance. So once again LA is going to become more expensive to live in."
— Nick Halaris
While the immediate market impact may be positive for property owners, Nick highlighted a more concerning long-term consequence: skyrocketing insurance costs for all Angelenos. These increased costs will further cement LA's position as an increasingly expensive place to live, continuing what Nick calls "the mega-trend of our lifetime."
An interesting silver lining has emerged from the crisis. Mayor Bass issued emergency directives to fast-track getting housing units online. Nick has two buildings about to receive Certificates of Occupancy that would normally face lengthy delays but may now be expedited.
This situation underscores a frustrating reality about LA's development landscape - many of the bureaucratic hurdles that typically slow construction are being temporarily suspended during this emergency, proving they could be eliminated or streamlined in normal times as well.
Beyond market analysis, Nick shared valuable insights about what makes for success in real estate:
Nick believes real estate is headed toward a future where information asymmetry (historically a key advantage for successful investors) diminishes, and properties become more freely tradable through technologies like blockchain and fractional shares.
Despite these changes, he maintains that creativity in understanding urban evolution and the willingness to hold properties for the long term will continue to create wealth in real estate.
"For me, something about the idea of being chained to a desk... I hated it actually. Real estate offered me both freedom and the opportunity to pursue my wide-ranging intellectual curiosities."
— Nick Halaris
What motivated Nick to enter real estate was a desire for personal freedom. Real estate offered him both freedom and the opportunity to pursue his wide-ranging intellectual curiosities.
Now, with Metros Capital established, Nick has evolved into a mentor role, helping develop talent like his partner Nick Fenmore, who he describes as "probably the best house flipper in Los Angeles."
Nick's career has evolved beyond just financial success. His newsletter "Profit Plus" now reaches about 20,000 readers worldwide, allowing him to share insights on markets, politics, and spiritual matters.
"What makes for a better or ideal lifestyle is when you have a sense of purpose. Go pursue your financial success, take care of your family, do the things you have to do, but if you can get that purpose mixed into it, then all of a sudden waking up every day has a different feeling."
— Nick Halaris
Nick and his partners recently launched Westward Capital, a lending company created to provide the kind of financial support they wished existed when they started out. Beyond just offering market-based rates, they aim to provide hands-on expertise from their years of experience as developers and house flippers.
"We know what it feels like to be a developer and house flipper... we know all the pain points because we've done so many of these transactions," Nick explained.
As Los Angeles faces the aftermath of devastating wildfires, the real estate market finds itself at a critical inflection point. While the immediate market impact may benefit property owners through increased demand and rising prices, the long-term implications for insurance costs and housing affordability remain concerning.
Through it all, Nick Halaris offers a perspective that balances market savvy with a deeper purpose - reminding us that in real estate, as in life, sustainable success requires both financial acumen and a clear sense of why we're doing what we do.
For more insights from Nick Halaris, you can find his newsletter "Profit Plus" or watch the full interview:
Watch Full Interview